Summary
- Political problems have risen, but economy seems fine
- Recessions: proved wrong
- Inflation: tumbled
- Stocks are expensive in America, the euro zone, and Japan
- The assassination attempt shows problem in American politics
- If Trump gets elected and his isolationist policies are made, America’s economy will decline
- Companies have adjusted to global problems
- Examples: redirecting supply chains to “alt-Asia”, adjust to not using Russian gas, America’s long-running jobs boom, innovation (such as generative AI)
- Cannot be sure that politics and economy is divorced: capitalism needs to be kept liberal, democratic, and peaceful for that
- Interest rates could rise, seeing doubts on subsidies and tariffs
- Trump’s policies may exacerbate this
- China is declining
- Britain’s Stockmarket performed terribly since Brexit (bc less trade)
- Week shares in TSMC and other tech funds fell: Trump suggesting Taiwan should pay America for defense guarantees
- Developing countries: No longer have a higher growing rate than developed countries
- Debt due to China unrecognizing special status of IMF
- While cutting taxes may look favorable, it is not since America’s budget has declined, and inflations will rise because of it
- Maybe Trump will not go extreme, but his economic policies are likely to fail
- Allowing more wars and decoupling from China would mean economic chaos
- Stock market may crash
- Economy should not ignore politics
Vocabulary
amiss: out of the right or proper course, order, or condition; improperly; wrongly; astray:
Sentence: The confirmation of the referee let everyone in the stadium nothing was amiss.
rife: of common or frequent occurrence; prevalent; in widespread existence, activity, or use:
Sentence: After the elections, riots against the president were rife.
unperturbed: not disturbed or troubled
Sentence: The unperturbed silence created a peaceful atmosphere.
tumult: violent and noisy commotion or disturbance of a crowd or mob; uproar:
Sentence: The violent tumult in the stands was caused by a lack of security officers.
wean: to withdraw (a person, the affections, one’s dependency, etc.) from some object, habit, form of enjoyment, or the like:
Sentence: Many companies had to wean off Russia after the war started.
wrought: (of metals) beaten out or shaped by hammering. (Oxford Languages)
Sentence: The knife was finished after it got wrought by a hammer.
impervious: not permitting penetration or passage; impenetrable:
Sentence: Perfect scores indicate that an impervious speech has been given.
telling: having force or effect; effective; striking:
Sentence: The telling attack suddenly made the game much more interesting.
meddle: to involve oneself in a matter without right or invitation; interfere officiously and unwantedly:
Sentence: The employee got fired soon after he meddled with the security system.
misgiving: Often misgivings. a feeling of doubt, distrust, or apprehension.
Sentence: Despite misgivings on the process, the defending champions won it again anyway.
excoriate: to denounce or berate severely; flay verbally:
Sentence: The foul play was excoriated, but didn’t see a yellow.
lament: to feel or express sorrow or regret for:
Sentence: The government lamented the incident, hoping for quick recovery.
heyday: the stage or period of greatest vigor, strength, success, etc.; prime:
Sentence: Few people remember Hungarian football’s heydays.
ruction: a disturbance, quarrel, or row.
Sentence: After a bit of ruction, the session was cancelled and everyone went home mad.
gauge: a standard of measure or measurement.
Sentence: The law being passed was a gauge of success.
barmy: mad; crazy. (Oxford Languages)
Sentence: It was a barmy choice to send the player off for being too loud.
bullish: obstinate or stupid.
Sentence: I can’t have this bullish conversation now; I need to work.
duress: compulsion by threat or force; coercion; constraint.
Sentence: The reporter refused to comply orders despite being under duress.
All definitions from dictionary.com unless mentioned otherwise
Thoughts
This article reminded me that we have not heard of an economic crisis in a while. And amidst of all this political chaos, a peaceful economy is rare. I have always thought the two moved together, but I learned it’s not always true. The Economist did not hide its hate against Trump. But in an economic perspective, it seems to be a pretty common opinion. What particularly interested me is the part that China does not respect the special status of IMF. It could be the fact that China ignores the efforts of IMF to relieve funds, or taking other measures to make repaying easier. Just goes to show how China should not be considered as the primary choice for borrowing money.